It was a landmark day for the Democratic party as stocks staged a much-needed relief rally, but trade tensions remain.

March 15

RECAP: Asian equities advanced Thursday and global markets looked for a bounce after savage selling, and gold hit a record as escalating trade tensions left investors rattled and prompted a flight to safe havens.

Thai shares stayed below the 1,200-point mark all week. The SET said the exchange has entered correction phase as of end of February, which had fallen 17.9% from the peak of current cycle.

The index fluctuated between 1,157.96 and 1,196.52 points this week, before closing on yesterday at 1,173.76 points, down 2.4% from the previous week, with average daily turnover of a meager 39.04 billion baht.

Retail investors bought a net 8.62 billion baht and institutional investors 1.45 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 8.29 billion baht of shares, followed by brokerage firms at 1.78 billion.

Gold surged towards $3,000 an ounce on Friday, with the spot price hitting an all-time high of $2,993.80, boosted by uncertainty over US tariffs and a steady tide of expectations for US interest rates cuts.

Lawmakers in the European Union are targeting €26 billion worth of goods from the US, after President Donald Trump placed a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminium. The bloc will aim politically sensitive products such as soybeans.

So inevitably the EU imposed 50% tariffs on US whiskey, leading Trump to threaten up to 200% tariffs on EU wine and spirits.

Trump announced the scrapping of plans to increase steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada to 50% after the premier of Ontario called off a 25% tax on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.

Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer run by Trump austerity czar Elon Musk, warned in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative that a trade war could lead to rising production costs and make its vehicles less competitive in international markets.

February US Consumer Inflation YoY: 2.8% (vs. Mkt 3.0%) Producer price growth came in below expectations as well, at 3.2%. Both numbers point to a weakening economy, which could put pressure on the Fed to lower rates more than it had previously anticipated.

China’s inflation fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February, the largest 13-month fall and larger than market expectations. Producer prices also declined 2.2%, contributing to persistently deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, and expressed worries about inflation pressures and underlying growth due to trade uncertainty.

The Nasdaq aims to roll out around-the-clock trading, Monday through Friday, in the second half of 2026 if approved by regulators and when infrastructure is ready.

Thailand aims to conclude negotiations with the European Union, its fourth largest trading partner, on a long-sought free trade agreement by year-end to strengthen economic security following possible tariff risks from the United States, the commerce minister said on Friday.

The cabinet also approved a Thai ESG Extra (ESGX) fund that will provide tax deductions for transfers from long-term equity funds (LTF) as high as 500,000 baht. Investments in Thai ESGX during May and June will also be eligible for the maximum deduction of 300,000 baht.

The Association of Investment Management Companies estimates that total investment in environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds, along with maturing LTF transfers, is expected to surpass 100 billion baht in the second half of this year.

The bourse attributed the 3.7% decline in net profit of SET-listed companies in 2024 to a slight increase in production and management costs.

Consumer Confidence Index in February dropped for the first time in five months to 57.8 on trade war fears and sluggish Thai economic growth, doling out results for the Thai economy in February, despite the government getting support from stimulus measures and measures for economic alleviation, said the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

The industrial sentiment index increased in February for the second month, to 93.4 from 91.6 in January, marking its highest reading since June 2023, aided by a central bank interest rate cut, economic stimulus and enduring growth in tourism.

The Federation of Thai Industries said a government credit guarantee programme to aid small businesses’ purchases of pickup trucks could contribute to at least 100,000 vehicles being sold in the troubled market.

Sunwoda Electronic, a Chinese battery cell manufacturer, will spend 50 billion baht to establish two new factories in Chon Buri and set up Thailand as its export base, the Board of Investment said.

Through the sale of 5 million lottery tickets, the government expects its retirement lottery to generate an additional 13 billion baht in savings a year, said Paopoom Rojanasakul, the deputy finance minister.

The project until May-August 2025 electricity tariff proposed by the Energy Regulatory Commission ranges from 4.15 to 5.16 baht per unit. The lowest is near the current rate, against the expectations of rates below 4 baht. A cabinet decision will come in 1-2 weeks.

The Economic Stimulus Board approved the third phase of the 10,000-baht digital wallet programme for 2.7 million citizens aged 16-20. Distribution is anticipated to start late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter. A fourth and final phase for others aged 21-60 not covered by the earlier largesse will follow sometime soon.

Citing the bleak tourism atmosphere, the Association of Thai Travel Agents predicts 37 million foreign visitors in 2025, only a slight increase from 35.5 million last year. It expects only 7 million Chinese arrivals, up from 6.7 million last year but below the government target of 8 million.

Airlines agree to slash ticket prices by 30% from ceiling rates and add 25,000 seats to serve travellers during April’s Songkran holidays, the Ministry of Transport said.

COMING UP: US monthly core retail sales on Monday. Tuesday, the Bank of Japan interest rate decision and Japanese trade figures. The Fed calls a rate decision and US economic projections on Wednesday, and the euro zone updates inflation data. Switzerland and the UK set interest rates Thursday, while the rest of the week is dominated with the Bank of Russia (Friday).

At home, SCB EIC shares the economic outlook on Tuesday and Allianz Ayudhya introduces a new executive on Thursday.

STOCKS TO WATCH: According to Pi Securities, the only supporting factors for the Thai stock market for now is cheap valuations and lofty dividend payment. It advised stocks with notable large-market capitalizations like shopping (CPN), retail (CPALL and CRC), commercial banks (BBL, KBANK, KTB and SCB), and hospitals (BDMS). PTTEP, CPF is recommended for short-term investment (speculation).

The SET should benefit as it will include new measures from the government and relevant agencies to restore confidence to the market and stimulate the economy to grow by 3.5%, said InnovestX Securities. That could temper selling pressure but there are risk factors on US trade policy. It recommends BCH (target price 20 baht), MTC (53 baht) and BTG (25 baht) stocks.

TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,145 points and resistance at 1,200. Pi Securities sees support 1,150, resistance 1,200.