SET and gold rise as Fed holds steady
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index rose three days in a row, briefly crossing 1,200 points on Thursday, along with gold, which rallied to a new record price for a third time this week, after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 4.25-4.50%, as predicted.
KGI Securities (Thailand) senior vice-president Rakpong Charoenpong said the improving investor sentiment was helped by the US central bank signalled it was willing to cut interest rates more than previously anticipated, guiding the Fed’s policy rate direction.
The baht also strengthened further against the US dollar, so investors were interested in buying large-cap stocks with attractive valuations.
(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta) The Fed cut its GDP growth projection but showed elevated inflation for 2025, ASL Securities said in a note.
“But the market reacted well to the Fed statement of confidence in the economy. Investors need to keep a track of Donald Trump’s trade tariff policy, which is likely to come into effect on April 2,” the brokerage said.
From April 2, the US will impose tariffs on Chinese products as retaliation. Thailand’s third largest export market is the US.
There is currently no definite measure for the planned tariffs from Thailand’s side except for the Commerce Ministry to draw up a plan regarding the import tax structure and the purchase of more products from the US including aircraft, soybeans and corn.
Domestic factors: the buying of institutional investors through window dressing method is expected to continue until the end of the first quarter, ASL said, adding that short-term SET resistance is at 1,200 points, while the next resistance point is at 1,230 points.
The Fed lowered its US GDP growth outlook to 1.70% for 2025, 1.80% for 2026 and 1.80% for 2027, Asia Plus Securities said. Inflation forecasts for the years were cut to 2.8%, 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.
A signal for two further rate cuts this year propelled the price of gold to an all-time-high of US$3,051.
Hua Seng Heng has forecast the next resistance level for the spot gold price to reach $3,070, and the next support level to drop to $3,020. Domestic prices are seen with support and resistance levels of 48,200 and 48,700 baht per baht-weight, respectively.
In a separate announcement, the SET said listed companies on the main bourse and the Market for Alternative Investment had paid a total of 594 billion baht in dividends for their financial results in 2024, virtually unchanged from the previous year.
The biggest contributor was the energy and utility sector, which paid out 170 billion baht in dividends, followed by banking with 107 billion and information and communication technology with 53.6 billion.
“These three sectors continue to perform well despite economic uncertainties, generating high dividend yields for their increased shareholders,” the SET said in a statement.
The average annual growth rate of dividend payments from listed companies over the past 10 years was 4.01%.
“Although net profits in 2024 slightly decreased year-on-year to 869 billion baht, net profits remained at a high level,” bourse said in a statement.
In May 2024, companies submitted the highest dividend, at 217 billion baht. The second-largest dividend payout season was in August and September, which received 24.3% of total annual dividends.
“The SET index fell on average in 2024 to its lowest level since the epidemic, but the earnings of listed companies continued to be solid, giving an opportunity to accumulate dividend stocks at lower price,” it said.
Overall 67.8% of listed companies in Thailand (627 firms) overall are still in the black, according to the bourse. Many investors looking for passive income still see dividend stocks as an attractive option, the SET said.
“Investing in dividend stocks is more than seeking compelling yields — it’s a longitudinal assessment of a company’s fundamentals, industry trajectory and economic headwinds, not to mention prudent timing of entry,” the bourse said.