Not is all quite as it seems

The ruling Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party may seem to be on the same page. Still, below the surface, an eruption is simmering, many observers say.

For some time, Pheu Thai has been attempting to undermine its largest coalition partner and high-profile Bhumjaithai figures.

Doubts still stalk the government, according to one observer, even if Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul has reiterated the party’s support for Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the no-confidence debate on Monday.

By the same token, critics say that Pheu Thai’s own efforts to rain political blows down upon Bhumjaithai at every turn may have been further eased when the opposition party stated that Ms Paetongtarn would be its only target in the no-confidence debate.

The observer said the fact Ms Paetongtarn is singled out makes it clear the opposition believes the premier is the weakest link in the government, and if she is toppled there will be a change in administration.

For weeks there was intense speculation over which of the cabinet ministers would be the targets of a grilling. Several names were bandied about, Mr Anutin’s among them (he is a deputy prime minister and the interior minister).

And at the same time, Bhumjaithai just kept taking a beating, beginning with Mr Anutin at the centre of an alleged land grab in Nakhon Ratchasima.

Last month, an advisory committee to the Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister began investigating land encroachment in Pak Chong district, adjacent to the Khao Yai National Park.

Among those properties was the Rancho Charnvee Resort and Country Club, the golf course owned by Mr Anutin’s family.

The team checked three sites in the district, according to Thanadol Suwannarit, an adviser to the agriculture and cooperatives minister.

They visited Rancho Charnvee too. Mr Thanadol said the land had been acquired legitimately, along with the title deed, though he would need to check the timeline to clarify whether it had been issued legally and whether part of the land is in fact within the area covered by the Agricultural Land Reform Office’s land reform.

Mr Anutin maintained that his purchase of the resort land was above board and that he welcomed the scrutiny. But he suspected the probe was perhaps politically motivated and blasted whoever might be orchestrating it as a coward.

The Agriculture Ministry is headed by the Kla Dharma Party, the patriarch of which, Capt Thamanat Prompow, was once a top Pheu Thai politician and has maintained close ties to the ruling party. The Palang Pracharath Party was recently defected by Kla Dharma and he became the most recent member of the Paetongtarn administration.

“The theory, which cannot be ignored, there is one party — it is understood to be a reference to Kla Dharma — must prove its ‘worth’ that would prove loyalty and proving himself by doing a little task, expecting a greater share of cabinet seats,” said the source.

Although the aftershocks have not died down from the Rancho Charnvee fiasco, the Senate has so far been rattled by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) investigation into suspected collusion in last year’s multi-tiered Senate elections in the professional groups. If such a collusion can be proven in a court of law, then a substantial amount of those senators are looking at losing their seats.

The senators most at risk were said to be the “blue-affiliated” ones. Bhumjaithai is blue in colour.

These senators have taken voting positions on controversial legislative matters congruent to Bhumjaithai, as opposed to those of Pheu Thai, such as charter amendment and referendum bills.

And with Bhumjaithai continuing to resonate with the blue senators, the party’s formidable and growing clout in parliament inevitably frustrates Pheu Thai, the observer said.

It would be another thing if intense manoeuvring to limit Bhumjaithai, which has emerged as the go-to choice party for many conservative voters — who have been impressed by Bhumjaithai’s commitment to defend their political and social values — is a foregone conclusion, the observer said.

The investigation into the Senate elections has put the DSI in hot water for overreach. The Election Commission has claimed the sole authority over investigating election-related irregularities, while the Council of State, the government’s legal arm, has also shown reluctance toward letting the DSI handling the Senate poll case.

Besides the already uncertain prospects of the Rancho Charnvee affair and the Senate poll investigation, Bhumjaithai is stuck with its own knot to untie about whether the government will cancel its MotoGP Grand Prix host contract if the motorbike track activity is found to be not worth the investment.

This race has held at the Chang International Circuit in the Buri Ram since 2018. The northeastern province has long been a stronghold of Bhumjaithai.

Were the government to follow through with cancelling sponsorship of the MotoGP Grand Prix, it could spiral the sporting empire constructed by one of the de facto leaders of Bhumjaithai, Newin Chidchob, into chaos.

But Bhumjaithai fortunes could swing because of the censure debate.

As the opposition closes in on Ms Paetongtarn in the debate, there is growing concern that the pressure may be too much for her. And if she emerges from the roiling in bad shape, the coalition partners may be forced to decide whether to continue their support, or vote no confidence against her.

If Ms. Paetongtarn does not get enough votes, her premiership will end, there will be a new government, and Mr. Anutin most likely will have an incentive to step forward as the best candidate among the other PM candidates.

But Mr Anutin has promised to support Ms Paetongtarn. The pledge which would keep the axe from falling on the premier — could prove to be Bhumjaithai’s problems fading and the party laughing last, said the observer.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s name was dropped from the censure motion filed against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, effectively guaranteeing that a no-confidence debate takes place.

The market is uncertain whether the debate would occur, after House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha warned the opposition on Wednesday not to name someone from outside as he wanted the censure debate to happen as scheduled.

Directly referring to an outsider would breach the regulation No.176 governing parliamentary meetings, which could expose him and other lawmakers to defamation lawsuits from outsiders, Mr Wan said.

The main opposition People’s Party (PP), in its initial motion in relation to Ms Paetongtarn only, included allegations against her father Thaksin that he was interfering with his daughter’s government. In the altered motion, Thaskin’s name gets deleted and is referred as “a family member” instead.

Away from parliament, Thaksin has been quick to respond to the PP.

He added that in the face of the accusation that he was controlling his former party like a political puppet master, the alleged de facto ruler of the ruling Pheu Thai Party retorted that “I must ask whether they [PP members] had conferred with the” the founder of the [now-dissolved] Future Forward Party (FFP) before inviting people to grill [the prime minister] over this accusation.

The FFP, which had collapsed over an illegal loan it borrowed from its founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, was the predecessor of the Move Forward Party that reincarnated, upon dissolution, into the PP.

When asked for further details, Thaksin told reporters last week that the PP’s recent success in the provincial administrative organisation election (PAO) in Lamphun — which Mr Thanathorn was involved in as part of the poll campaign — was another factor.

Mr Thanathorn is currently chairman of the Progressive Movement that has connections with both the dissolved MFP and PP, whose candidate Weeradet Pupisit, became the party’s only winner in a PAO chairman election.

Observers say Thaksin’s words are no throwaway line but are aimed at undermining the main opposition party by suggesting that there is no difference between Pheu Thai and the PP.

Thaksin’s message is fairly obvious that both political parties are being manipulated by unseen forces and if MP from the party wanted to question his role they should first should consult their own “real leader”, said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.

According to the analyst, since returning from self-exile abroad, Thaksin seems to have underperformed in heading the neo-conservative camp as he can’t bring down the PP’s popularity, nor get rid of the PP as a threat to the conservative bloc.

Despite support from the coalition partners, former prime minister Srettha Thavisin and Ms Paetongtarn have failed to iswaddle results, especially relative to the Bhumjaithai Party and its allies in the Senate.

“He” being Bhumjaithai led by Anutin Charnvirakul, who is deputy prime minister and the interior minister, and “blue faction” senators, who Mr Olarn credited with fending off attempts to rewrite the 2017 constitution.

“That’s why Thaksin has no option but to stage a public showdown with the PP,” he said, adding the opposition party must also do its part. Moreover, for its own sake, the PP must present itself as the lesser evil, against the greater threat posed by the red camp, or Pheu Thai.

Some 44 former MPs from the defunct MFP who are now with the PP also are accused of supporting a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law. The case is under review by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and if the court accepts it, 25 current PP lawmakers could be suspended from parliamentary duty.

“Given that, the PP must finally justify itself and escape that fate,” he said.

The upcoming no-confidence debate is poker for the PP, the analyst noted, arguing that if the grilling is a flop, it would lead to greater speculation about the “Hong Kong deal” The deal takes the form of a supposed meeting held in Hong Kong between influential political figures who have been alleged to be the real power behind Pheu Thai and MFP.

The meeting reportedly raised the prospect of the MFP some day taking over the conservative block in the Pheu Thai-led coalition, should and when the Pheu Thai-led coalition was to be ditched.

“If the PP doesn’t deliver in the debate, it would give some credence to the alleged deal between Thaksin and Mr Thanathorn in Hong Kong.

“The opposition is going to have to throw the kitchen sink at this [in the censure debate], and anything short of that could be used to fuel the allegation of a behind-closed-door deal,” he said.

For Pheu Thai, the plan is to play both sides — engage in a fight-and-make-up game with the opposition while keeping its collaboration with Bhumjaithai, which has strong ties to the Senate, in check.

But the burden is really on Thaksin as his political manoeuvring determines the fate of the Pheu Thai Party, and in turn his daughter.