Le Pen of France to learn verdict that may end presidential ambitions

PARIS – A French court on Monday will deliver its verdict in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen for an alleged fake jobs scam at the EU parliament, which could dash her chances of standing in the next presidential elections in two years.

Le Pen, a three-time candidate for France’s presidency who smells her best opportunity yet to win the job in a 2027 campaign, has stridently denied any wrongdoing.

But prosecutors in the case, which also implicates other senior members of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, have urged the court to hit Le Pen with both a spell behind bars and a public office ban.

The latter would take effect immediately even if she appeals, the demand by prosecutors last year said, in effect barring her from the presidential polls in two years if the court grants the request.

In an article for the La Tribune Dimanche newspaper published on Sunday, Le Pen directly addressed the appeal court’s ruling, saying it gave “the right of life or death over our movement to the judges”.

But talking about a potential immediate barring from office, she added: “I do not think that they will go that far.”

Alongside a five-year ban on public office, prosecutors sought five years behind bars for Le Pen — three of which could be suspended and the remaining two served outside prison with an electronic bracelet — and a 300,000 euro ($324,000) fine.

Young pretender –

With her RN topping the polls as the largest party in parliament following the 2024 legislative elections, Le Pen thinks she has the wind at her back to capture the Elysee in 2027, fueled by public angst over immigration and the cost of living.

Polls now show her likely to win the first round of voting comfortably and to make the run-off.

If she wins in 2027, she would join a growing list of hard- and far-right leaders across the globe, running from Giorgia Meloni in Italy to Hungary’s Viktor Orban.

Should she be condemned, lying in wait is her protege and RN party leader Jordan Bardella, a mere 29-year-old, who is not under investigation in the case.

Last week Bardella became the first leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party to visit Israel after it was invited by the government to address a conference on the battle against anti-Semitism, a trip condemned by critics as hypocrisy.

But there are doubts within the party even about the so-called “Plan B” and if he has the chops for a presidential campaign.

Le Pen became president of the then-National Front (FN) in 2011 but quickly moved to turn the party into a credible electoral force and distance it from the divisive legacy left by its co-founder and her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died earlier this year and who faced repeated allegations of making racist and anti-Semitic comments.

She rebranded it as the National Rally and adopted a policy of “dediabolisation” (de-demonisation), ostensibly to make it palatable to a broader swath of voters.

‘Political death’ –

Alongside Le Pen, the RN is also in the dock and faces a fine of 4.3 million euros ($4.6 million), with less than half of that amount suspended.

Those on trial — a total of 24 people — also include nine former members of the European Parliament and their 12 parliamentary aides.

After the prosecutors’ demands were disclosed, a stunned Le Pen said they were asking for “my political death” and condemned them for depriving the French of a free choice in the next elections.

But prosecutors have maintained that there has been no “harassment” of the RN.

They accuse the party of relieving pressure on its own finances by using all of the 21,000-euro monthly allowance to which MEPs were entitled to fund “fictitious” parliamentary assistants, who in reality worked for the party.

And prosecutors claim that when Marine Le Pen became party leader in 2011, its ”organised” nature was “reinforced”.

Related articles: pollstation: a postmedia network old members club Le Pen on course to win next presidential election, poll shows Her fate in the run-off second round would probably hinge on whether all of her opponents rallied to vote against her.

But with President Emmanuel Macron barred from running again, it is less than clear who the strongest candidate will be from the center and traditional right to replace him.

Standing in November as a backbencher, one possible hopeful, the powerful Justice Minister, Gérald Darmanin, said it would be “profoundly shocking” if Le Pen were unable to stand.